Following July’s rebound in headline CPI, August was expected to see that accelerate further (driven by surging energy prices and healthcare methodology changes).
Headline CPI rose 0.6% MoM (as expected), but pushed the YoY change to +3.7% (up from 3.2% prior and hotter than the 3.6% exp). That is the biggest MoM since June 2022…
Source: Bloomberg
Core CPI rose 0.3% MoM (more than the 0.2% expected) but the YoY declined to 4.3% (as expected) from 4.7% prior…
Source: Bloomberg
And perhaps most importantly, The Fed’s new favorite inflation signal – Core Services CPI Ex-Shelter surged 0.53% MoM (most since Sept 2022) and YoY remains above 4%…
Source: Bloomberg
Both Goods and Services inflation slowed (with the former at its lowest since July 2020). Services remains extremely hot though…
Source: Bloomberg
On a YoY basis, Energy deflation is helping (but less and less so)…
Source: Bloomberg
Turning from the cost of things to the ability to pay, ‘real’ wages
Source: Bloomberg
Is the over-optimistic view of the world heading for a disinflationary soft-landing about to crash on the shores of commodity’s reality island?
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